Monday, July 16, 2012

Hiring To Hit The Wall Along With Economy


Mish Shedlock is one of my favorite economists, if only because he is right more than he is wrong. His statistical observations here comport with my own anecdotal perspectives of the American workplace, to-wit, the liquidity driven bounce in sales, and thus hiring, is nearing an end. The hiring I have seen has been mostly due to attrition and perceived need to service existing business, as opposed to any sincere belief in the economy. The extension of Operation Twist and ZIRP (the Fed's zero interest rate policy) will do nothing to prop up the economy which appears to want to deflate. Another QE may provide a few weeks' relief, but after that pop the other economists who have been getting it wrong will wake up and observe the obvious -- we cannot solve a solvency problem with liquidity.

Here is Mish's observation:

"Only 23% of US Companies Plan to Hire in Next 6 Months; "Lights Out" Moment Coming Up

According to the latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) hiring over the next six months looks grim.

A NABE Poll Shows Fewer U.S. Companies Planning to Hire

Only 23 percent of the firms polled in June plan to add to staff in the next six months, the National Association for Business Economics said on Monday.

NABE's prior survey, conducted in late March and early April, had shown 39 percent of companies planning to add workers.

A July 6 Labor Department report, showed companies asked employees to work longer hours last month, even though they slowed the pace of hiring.

Among companies that produce goods rather than provide services, the impact was even greater, with nearly four in five reporting a Europe-driven decline in revenues.

Three months earlier, only about a quarter of total firms polled thought sales had fallen

Lights Out Moment Coming Up

This report is consistent with my report US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Hiring plans are also consistent with the Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now.

All of a sudden, consumers and businesses alike are going to have a "lights out" moment where orders dry up, hiring dries up, and unemployment heads North.

If the NABE poll is correct (and it is certainly consistent with other data), that time has arrived.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock"


The original article which contains additional links is here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.mx/2012/07/only-23-of-us-companies-plan-to-hire-in.html

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The most honest 3 1/2 minutes on television ever

Watch it. Turn up your speakers. Thank you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ0EoL5kXD4&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Karger On ObamaCare and Medicare Via The Dollar Vigilante

The original article is found here: http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2012/7/3/american-medicalcare-its-terminal.html


American Medicalcare: It's Terminal
TUESDAY, JULY 3, 2012 AT 6:54PM

[Editors note: the following post is by Jim Karger, TDV Legal Correspondent]

The final nail has been driven into the coffin of America's medical care system (note it's not healthcare because the system has nothing to do with health).

With the Supreme Court decision last week on ObamaCare, the US has taken its failed venture into socialized medicine, i.e., Medicare, and foisted it upon the general public, most of whom really believe they are going to get something for nothing. 



It is as if the U.S. government doesn't understand that doubling down on a losing bet doesn't make it a winner.   And let's not forget that Medicare, which came to America as part of Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society," has been a tragic, unmitigated failure.

US medicalcare is the most expensive care in the world. Some say that is because it is the best. Nonsense.

The overall health of the average American is nothing to write home about.   The average life expectancy for a person born in the U.S. today is 78.49 - significantly lower than for people born in Monaco, Macau and Japan, for example, which have the three highest life expectancies at 89.7, 84.4 and 83.9 years, respectively.  

American medicalcare is the most expensive because too many Americans are stressed-out, overweight pigs at the trough and the free market is not allowed to act as a not-so-gentle reminder that health is our individual responsibility.  If insurance companies were allowed to fully underwrite risk on an individual basis, a 300 pound smoker probably couldn't get insurance which might act as an incentive to stop smoking and lose weight.  

To add fuel to the fire, Medicare has resulted in an artificial demand for medical services since they appear to be free (or nearly free) for those over 65.  Have a hangnail?  Go to the doctor.  Cold?  Go the doctor.  Just need someone to talk to?  Go to the doctor.  Dying and want to squeeze out another month or two of lying in a bed connected to machinery at a cost of a million dollars or more?  No worries.  Government is going to pay the tab.

In still another affront to the market, Medicare utilizes price-fixing, the same kind of conduct that would result in you or me being imprisoned.  The government decides what it will pay and the medical providers have to accept it.  The net-net has been to transfer costs from the public sector to the private sector which has increased the cost of private health insurance while disguising the real cost to the taxpayer.

Three health insurance programs—Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP)—together account for 21 percent of the entire US budget (or did in 2011), to the tune of $769 billion. Nearly two-thirds of this amount, or $486 billion, went to Medicare. Even using the government's numbers, it is estimated Medicare will be bankrupt and unable to pay benefits in just eight years, or, if you listen to Medicare's own actuary, it will fail 4 years from now, in 2016.

The socialists don't care.  Their goal remains the same:  to squeeze blood out of a turnip and to spend as if there is no tomorrow until there is no tomorrow.  They don't understand because they don't want to understand.

However, it is not the socialists, but the so-called conservatives, who are the most disingenuous in criticizing American medicalcare.  On the one hand, the neo-cons are up in arms over the Supreme Court's decision in finding ObamaCare constitutional pursuant to the government's power to steal (aka "tax") but are silent when the subject is their own version of ObamaCare, or Medicare.  Even the Republican Romney has made it clear that while he will try and repeal ObamaCare (in and of itself an ironic contention considering he invented it), he won't touch Medicare.  And, when he utters that wholly dishonest promise, you can hear a pin drop.



Even more pathetic than the politicians, none of whom have the guts to pronounce Medicare DOA, are those who are sucking the hind tit of socialized medicine today while raising hell over, well, socialized medicine. 

How can Americans justify lining up for Medicare while being against ObamaCare?

The most common response to this question?  "I paid for it.  I deserve it." 

The problem with that response?  It is wrong. Charles Hugh Smith summarized the numbers as follows: 

"Medicare tax is 2.9% of wages, 1.45% each for employer and employee. If the typical worker makes $30,000 a year for 35 years, then lifetime earnings are about $1 million. If we take the $40,000/year average, then that rises to around $1.4 million in lifetime earnings. The 2.9% Medicare tax thus totals about $30,000 to $40,000 in lifetime contributions for the average worker.  The average benefits extracted from the system run from $393,000 to $525,000 (due to the benefits extended to non-working spouses, benefits for never-married people may be somewhat lower). Average annual costs per beneficiary run as high as $18,000, though expenses typically rise significantly in the last year of life."

Medicare isn't insurance.  It is not something you fund with a willing counterpart taking the risk for a negotiated premium based on individual underwriting.  Medicare is welfare, plain and simple.  It is a government transfer program.  Few receiving Medicare today paid enough to justify the government largess they are now receiving (or are hoping to receive). 

Medicare is nothing more or less than a contemporary bread line for the sick and is destined to hasten the bankruptcy, and ultimate default by the United States. 

ObamaCare isn't different.  It is just piling on.  While the mechanism may be private insurance, there will be nothing free or free market about it.  Government will use its heavy hand to influence, and ultimately decide, both premiums and prices, and the final tab for the assured deficit will make its way to the taxpayer.

Those who are pounding the drum, denouncing ObamaCare as if it was something new and hideous, are unimpressive.  Where have they been the last 47 years?  They have been enjoying it, knowing that someone else will ultimately have to pay their tab.  The frequently heard admonition that "we shouldn't be passing this debt to our children," sounds good, but means nothing.  They are more than happy to pass the cost of their freebies to their children and grandchildren while crying crocodile tears and cursing big government.

Which brings me to the end, literally.  One reason America is going to fail economically is simple and straightforward:  No one is willing to take the pain for the profligate spending.  The battle cry may be "Balance the budget!"  But listen carefully.  After the echo subsides, there is an almost imperceptible, but very real whisper, ". . . just don't take away any of my entitlements."

The patient has expired.


Jim Karger is a lawyer who has represented American businesses against incursions by government and labor unions for 30 years. He has been the subject of many feature articles, including, "Outlandish Labor Lawyer Gets No Objections From Staid Clients," published in the Wall Street Journal, and most recently was featured in an article entitled, "You Can Get There From Here," published by the American Bar Association. In 2001, he left Dallas, and moved to San Miguel de Allende in the high desert of central Mexico where he sought and found a freer and simpler life for he and his wife, Kelly, and their 10 dogs.

Sunday, July 01, 2012

The NeoCon Dilemma: Against ObamaCare But For Medicare

America's neo-conservatives must be wringing their hands today . . . 

On the one hand, they are up in arms over the Supreme Court's decision finding ObamaCare constitutional pursuant to the government's power to steal, aka "tax." they have that right for reasons I have already identified in earlier blogs.

On the other hand, the older so-called "conservatives" are using their own version of ObamaCare (Medicare and Medicaid) without so much as an objection, and the Republican Romney has made it clear that while he will try and repeal ObamaCare (itself an irony since he invented it, he won't touch Medicare.

The argument used by those receiving Medicare?  "I paid for it."  

Problem with this argument?  It is both wrong and disingenuous.

The numbers look like this:  The Medicare tax is 2.9% of wages, 1.45% each for employer and employee. If the typical worker makes $30,000 a year for 35 years, then lifetime earnings are about $1 million. If we take the $40,000/year average, then that rises to around $1.4 million in lifetime earnings. The 2.9% Medicare tax thus totals about $30,000 to $40,000 in lifetime contributions for the average worker.

The average benefits extracted from the system run from $393,000 to $525,000 (due to the benefits extended to non-working spouses, benefits for never-married people may be somewhat lower). Average annual costs per beneficiary run as high as $18,000, though expenses typically rise significantly in the last year of life.

Medicare is welfare, plain and simple.  Few paid for the government largess they are now receiving. It is modernity's bread line of socialized medical care.

Like ObamaCare, Medicare is destined to hasten the bankruptcy of the United States.

Yet, not a peep from the neo-conservatives when it comes to Medicare.

Such is the problem . . . "Balance the budget, but don't take away any of MY entitlements."

Say goodnight, Gracie.